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[USD] US Treasury Market Outlook.

[USD] Inflation worries seem to have jolted the US Treasury market on Friday. The University of Michigan expectations of the 1-year inflation rate hit 4.8%, continuing its ratcheting and up from c. 2% y/y rate in Q1 2020. Along with a strong September retail sales report, the market was unsettled. Yields on the 2-year note rose 3bp to 0.39%, up from 0.21% one month earlier. With inflation concerns up, so were yields on the 10-year note rose 6bp to 1.57%, up from 1.33% a month earlier. The 2s10s yield curve slope reached 118bp.
10/15/2021 8:35:27 PM

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[INT] The Week Ahead.

[INT] Comments on key data, speakers and events in the coming week.
10/15/2021 7:53:18 PM

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[EUR] Trade surplus narrows unexpectedly in August

[EUR] Eurozone s/adj global goods trade surplus (released Fri) narrowed to EUR11.1bn in Aug, undershooting the market prediction of EUR19.3bn, from a revised EUR13.5bn in Jul (prev EUR13.4bn). Exports increased by 0.3% m/m to EUR200.6bn, while imports also increased, by 1.6%, to EUR189.4bn. This latest development marks the lowest global goods trade surplus since May 2020, and this downside surprise should, in principle at least, be interpreted as a EUR-negative development.
10/15/2021 3:07:27 PM

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[MXN] Banxico minutes show split, big hikes unlikely

[MXN] The MXN has strengthened to the USD/MXN 20.50 area, helped by declining US treasury yields, but approaching Fed tapering with expectations that it will start in mid-November is still a negative for the MXN on a multi-week view in spite of tapering being largely discounted. At the same time, there are questions about Banxico's tightening cycle. Its third consecutive 25bps rate hike two weeks ago (taking the policy rate to 4.75%) reflected the central bank's hawkishness for now. But we have questioned whether Banxico is behind the curve because it has not been tightening more aggressively to lower inflation expectations. The minutes of the policy meeting were published yesterday and underscored the split among policymakers with one board member arguing that the central bank needed to implement bigger rate hikes so as to be proactive given the uncertainty ahead, most members agreeing that the price formation process faces risks due to a number of shocks as do inflation expectations.
10/15/2021 11:56:11 AM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
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  • Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

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