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[USD] US Treasury Market Outlook

[USD] Following a modest pop higher on the Bank of Canada's announcement to taper bond purchases, US Treasury yields gave up their gains and ended slightly lower on the day. The relatively tight trading range and lack of direction was in contrast to bigger moves in oil prices (lower) and equities (higher), and also contrasted the strong demand for 20-year Treasurys in Wednesday's auction. 10-year yields looked to close near 1.5520%, their fourth consecutive day inside the 12-basis point trading range seen during the tumultuous session on April 15th. The dry spell for US economic data ends Thursday, with weekly jobless claims, home sales, and April manufacturing and services surveys due over the next two sessions, leading into next week's heavy calendar of data, auctions and the FOMC meeting. Talk that the Biden administration will soon unveil the second half of its multi-year spending package focused on social programs, likely including increases in individual taxes to help pay for it, will only add to the news flow. Market reaction that package should be less enthusiastic than the infrastructure package, offering the prospect of some renewed volatility. For now, equities appear to have stabilized, potentially ending the brief drawdown on the back of heightened uncertainty over earnings, rising COVID case counts globally, and tensions in Ukraine. Absent any flight-to-quality bid on equity market troubles, the potential for a break higher in yields should remain in place.
4/21/2021 8:12:48 PM

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[CAD] BoC takeaway: no taper tantrum, but optimism reigns

[CAD] As widely expected, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged but reduced its net purchases of Government of Canada bonds to C$3bn weekly from C$4bn, effective the week of 26 April. The Bank also upgraded its GDP forecasts to 6.5% in 2021, 3.75% in 2022, and 3.25% in 2023, and moved forward to the second half of 2022 (from 2023) its projection of when economic slack will be fully eliminated, thereby allowing the Bank to sustainability achieve its inflation target. This revised forecast implies that the Bank could be ready to begin raising interest rates in 2H 2022, although Governor Macklem cautioned in his press conference that its rate guidance is 'outcome based' and not calendar based, that such a move will not be 'mechanical,' and that it is dependent on estimates of potential output that are unusually uncertain as a result of the unprecedented nature of recent events. For this reason, he said that the Bank will examine a broad spectrum of labor market indicators to gauge slack, noting in particular the impact of the downturn on low age workers, women and youth, and will only act once a full recovery is achieved. And while expressing greater confidence in the economy's resilience to the pandemic, he also warned that the third wave of the virus will likely generate some reversal in recent job gains.
4/21/2021 6:37:10 PM

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[FRX] Forex market outlook - 22 April

[FRX] The USD DXY gave back all of its morning gains in late-European trading, as the greenback turned in a mixed performance against its G-10 peers. Having touched an intra-day high of 91.428, it slid to trade near its intra-day low of 91.086, down from its 91.241 close on Tues. Please see our forex market outlook below.
4/21/2021 4:36:36 PM

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[GBP] Inflation rises less than expected

[GBP] UK annual CPI inflation (released Weds) accelerated to 0.7% y/y in Mar, from 0.4% y/y in Feb, undershooting the market consensus prediction of 0.8% y/y. This occurred on the back of a 0.3% m/m climb, up from 0.1% m/m in Feb, and exactly matching the consensus forecast. Furthermore, the annual rate for Q1 CPI inflation remained steady at 0.6% y/y, unchanged from 0.6% y/y in Q4 2020. Core annual CPI inflation that excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco picked up very much as expected, to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% y/y in Feb, on the back of a 0.4% m/m climb.
4/21/2021 3:43:58 PM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
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  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

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