... from the IDEApro Suite
[USD] US Treasury Market Outlook
[USD] The Treasury curve continued to flatten aggressively on Friday following hawkish remarks from St. Louis President Bullard on CNBC at the start of the NY trading session. By late afternoon NY trading, 2-year note yields were up 4.5bps on the day, while 10-year Treasury yields were down 6.3bps to 1.441%. As a result, the 2s10s spread was down another 10.7bps to 118.4bps following Thursday's 7.4bps decline, reaching its flattest in four months, while the 2s30s fell another 12.8bps to 175.8bps, its flattest since 2 February. 10-year breakevens fell another 5.1bps to 2.24%, their lowest since early March; 10-year TIPS yields were only up 1.2bps to -0.809%, leaving them a cumulative 9bps higher than before the FOMC meeting.
6/18/2021 8:33:16 PM
[GBP] Retail sales decline unexpectedly in May
[GBP] UK May retail sales volumes (released on Fri) declined by (-)1.4% m/m, significantly undershooting the market prediction of 1.6%, and follows a 9.2% rise in Apr. This took the annual rate down to 24.6% y/y, from 42.4% in Apr. May core retail sales also declined, by (-)2.1% m/m, undershooting consensus expectations of a 1.5% increase, following an upwardly revised 9.1% in Apr (prev 9.0%). This translated to a y/y rate of 21.7%, following 37.7% recorded in Apr. In principle, this recent outcome should be interpreted as a GBP-negative development.
6/18/2021 8:24:53 PM
[INT] The Week Ahead in the Majors
[INT] Please see below for a summary of key data and events in the major markets.
6/18/2021 7:21:47 PM
[FRX] Forex market outlook update - 21 June
[FRX] The USD resumed its rampage in the latter half of Friday's European trading session as comments by US St Louis Fed Pres Bullard revealed a) that he predicted a 2022 rise in the Fed Funds rate, and b) that Fed Chair officially opened taper discussions this week, increased USD sentiment even further. These, coming atop the Fed's earlier signalling of the prospect of two fed fund rate increases by end-2023, were sufficient to send the DXY soaring to 9 Apr highs of 92.405, up another 0.56%% from its Thurs close of 91.889. Please see our forex market outlook update below.
6/18/2021 5:44:03 PM
IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service
on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
- Streamlined product structure for ease of use.
- Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
- Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.
Download the IDEAFX product guide here.
IDEAglobal products on Bloomberg
IDEAglobal products can now be accessed on Bloomberg in two ways:
1. NH IDE. This will pull up all of IDEAglobal’s research in a newswire format, from which you can scroll down and click onto the analysis or strategy piece of interest. Additionally, based on your subscription you will also have access to IDEAglobal research within relevant Bloomberg news feeds.
2. IDGL. This provides a menu for IDEAglobal’s products, arranged by their key sections: FastTrack, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Strategy. This then allows the user to drill down to specific articles on the markets covered by IDEAglobal. (See example here.)
IDEAglobal's main products are:
• FX and FX options - G10 and EM foreign exchange markets
• Global Rates - G10 money and government debt markets
• EM Asia - FX and debt markets in Emerging Asia
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