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[USD] US Treasury Market Outlook

[USD] US Treasury market has now more than just pivoted to the inflation storm. While there was little market-moving news on Tuesday, the market had two days worth of adjustment to make, given the federal holiday on Monday. The yield on the 10-year note rose 10bp to 1.87%. That is the highest yield since Jul 2019, and up from 1.51% at end-2021. The 2-year note crested 1% to end the day at 1.04%, up from 0.73% at year-end 2021. That left the 2s10s yield curve around 84bp.
1/18/2022 8:50:46 PM

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[FRX] Forex market outlook - 19 January

[FRX] The USD traded firmer against almost all of its other G-10 peers, save the JPY, on waning risk appetite, reflected in falling share prices, amid soaring US treasury yields and higher oil prices, while tensions continue to mount at the Ukraine/Russia border, with the DXY advancing for the third consecutive session. - Please see our forex market outlook below.
1/18/2022 6:36:22 PM

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[USD] US Alert: Can US Inflation Fall in 2022?

[USD] The Fed has awakened to inflation in the past two months, though monetary policy remains accommodative. While the Fed has changed the meaning of 'transitory' from the temporal to mean that inflation will not become embedded in expectations as it moves lower. The FOMC at its mid-Dec meeting raised its expectations for inflation by 0.4% to 2.6%. The Bloomberg consensus outlook is for Q4 2022 CPI to fall to 2.8%. We at IDEAglobal are concerned that expectations of a gentle fall in inflation this year might be overly optimistic. CPI inflation has hit 7% y/y, a near 40-year high. There is no evidence - yet - that inflation could be moving lower, as the six-month change in the CPI is also 7%.
1/18/2022 4:46:41 PM

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[DEM] ZEW headline indicator improves in January

[DEM] The German Jan ZEW investor sentiment survey (released Tues) revealed a significant improvement in the headline sentiment indicator to 51.7 - highest since Jul - from 29.9 in Dec, exceeding the market consensus expectation of a rise to 32.0. In addition, this latest reading is above its long-run average of 23.1. The German ZEW current conditions sub-index declined to -10.2 - lowest since May - from -7.4 in Dec, undershooting the market prediction of -8.5. At the margin, this upside surprise in the headline index should be interpreted as a EUR-positive development.
1/18/2022 2:50:39 PM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
  • Streamlined product structure for ease of use.
  • Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

Download the IDEAFX product guide here.


IDEAglobal products on Bloomberg
IDEAglobal products can now be accessed on Bloomberg in two ways:
  1. NH IDE. This will pull up all of IDEAglobal’s research in a newswire format, from which you can scroll down and click onto the analysis or strategy piece of interest. Additionally, based on your subscription you will also have access to IDEAglobal research within relevant Bloomberg news feeds.
  2. IDGL. This provides a menu for IDEAglobal’s products, arranged by their key sections: FastTrack, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Strategy. This then allows the user to drill down to specific articles on the markets covered by IDEAglobal. (See example here.)

IDEAglobal's main products are:

• FX and FX options - G10 and EM foreign exchange markets
• Global Rates - G10 money and government debt markets
• EM Asia - FX and debt markets in Emerging Asia

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